TMTPOST --   Apple Inc. is set to overtake Samsung Electronics Co. as the world's largest smartphone maker in 2025, marking its first return to the top position since 2011, according to the global market research firm Counterpoint Research. The milestone reflects the iPhone maker's resurgence driven by strong demand for its latest device lineup and favorable market conditions.

Credit：Apple

The iPhone 17 series, launched in September, has delivered double-digit year-over-year sales growth in both the U.S. and China, Counterpoint reported. Apple is projected to achieve a 10% shipment growth in 2025, compared with 4.6% for Samsung, giving it a 19.4% market share in a smartphone market expected to expand 3.3% overall.

Beyond immediate product success, Apple is benefiting from a critical inflection point in replacement cycles. Consumers who purchased devices during the pandemic boom are entering their upgrade phase, while 358 million secondhand iPhones sold between 2023 and the second quarter of 2025 represent additional upgrade potential, according to Counterpoint analyst Yang Wang.

Counterpoint expected Apple to maintain its No. 1 position through at least 2029, supported by the anticipated 2026 launch of a foldable iPhone and budget-friendly iPhone 17e, followed by a major design overhaul in 2027.

Strong China Performance Drives Growth

Apple's resurgence has been particularly pronounced in China, where the company posted 37% year-over-year growth in October, far outpacing the broader market's 8% increase, according to Counterpoint data published last week. iPhones accounted for 25% of all smartphone sales in China that month — a milestone achieved only once before in 2022.

The iPhone 17 series has reversed Apple's fortunes in the world's largest smartphone market. A year ago, the company faced pressure from domestic competitors and tepid reception for the iPhone 16 series. The standard iPhone 17 model has particularly driven upgrades, with first-month sales rising 22% while the broader market slipped 2.7%, according to earlier Counterpoint findings.

Counterpoint senior analyst Ivan Lam noted that new iPhone models represent over 80% of unit sales, with rising average selling prices expected to amplify revenue growth. The performance marks Apple's best start to a December quarter ever, surpassing the previous peak in October 2021.

Upgrade Cycle Reaches Critical Point

The timing of Apple's market share gains reflects structural shifts in smartphone replacement patterns. "The key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point," Wang said. Consumers who bought devices during elevated pandemic demand are now due for upgrades.

The massive installed base of secondhand iPhones — 358 million units sold over roughly two years — provides additional runway. These users represent potential conversions to new devices in coming years, supporting sustained growth beyond immediate product cycles.

Counterpoint's projections extend Apple's lead through 2029, incorporating expected product launches including foldable devices and budget models alongside a planned 2027 design refresh.

Record Quarter Ahead

Apple signaled momentum last month when CEO Tim Cook indicated the holiday quarter would approach a record $140 billion in revenue, with sales growing faster than anticipated. Cook repeatedly highlighted the iPhone 17 lineup's strong early performance during the company's earnings call.

Supply chain sources indicate Apple aims to ship 95 million iPhone 18 units in 2026, representing an 11.8% increase from the approximately 85 million iPhone 17 units shipped in 2025. The company has adopted a new annual design strategy starting with the iPhone 17 series.

Xiaomi captured the No. 2 position domestically in China for the first time in over a decade, while OPPO drove growth with its flagship Find X9 series. Despite competition from Huawei's Mate 80 series launched November 25, Counterpoint analysts see sustained momentum for Apple heading into year-end.